Athletico PR U17 vs Gremio U17

Athletico PR U17 at home look more solid across their 9 matches, with 5 wins and a positive goal difference (19 scored, 14 conceded). Their recent run is strong, showing four wins in their last five games (WLWWW), which supports the idea that they can control the match more often than not. Gremio U17 have struggled more in results and defending, with only 3 wins and a negative goal difference (11 scored, 25 conceded). Their recent form is weaker, with just two wins in their last five (WWLLL), suggesting they may find it harder to sustain pressure or avoid conceding. The goal profile also leans toward a home-driven game. Athletico’s scoring and concession numbers, combined with Gremio’s higher goals against, fit the higher likelihood of over 2.5 goals (67.7%) and both teams scoring (61.4%), rather than a low-scoring, tightly controlled contest. Overall, the home win case is supported by the matchup trends and form, with the home side priced as the most likely outcome (70.0%) but not overwhelmingly so. With a medium risk level and a meaningful draw chance (17.1%), it’s a reasonable lean rather than a lock.