Ascoli vs Lazio

Ascoli at home has started strongly in 2025, winning their only match and recording 5 goals with 0 conceded, including a clean sheet. That early defensive record supports the idea that they can keep the game under control, even if the sample size is small. Lazio’s away record across four matches is mixed but not weak, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. They’ve scored 4 and conceded 3 overall, and they also have two clean sheets, suggesting they can be competitive defensively on the road. The probabilities lean toward an Ascoli home win (57.7%) rather than a draw (24.2%) or Lazio win (18.1%), but the confidence is limited by the limited Ascoli sample and Lazio’s ability to avoid heavy defeats. Over 2.5 goals is slightly less favored than not (44.9%), while both teams to score is close to a coin flip (48.2%), so a tight or low-to-moderate scoring game is plausible. With a high risk level and confidenceScore of 37, the home-win angle looks reasonable, but it’s not strongly supported across broader scoring patterns.