Arkadag vs Merw

Arkadag have been extremely strong at home, going 13W 1D 0L in 14 matches, with 53 goals scored and only 7 conceded. They also keep the ball out of the net often, with 8 clean sheets, and their recent form is perfect with five straight wins. Merw’s away record is much weaker, with 4W 2D 8L and only 15 goals scored while conceding 34. Their recent form is also poor, showing four straight losses before a single win, and they have just 2 clean sheets overall. The matchup profile supports a home win, reflected in the probabilities: 87.3% for Arkadag to win versus 3.8% for Merw. It also points to goals being more likely than not, with over 2.5 goals at 74.5%, while both teams to score is closer to a coin flip at 50.8%, given Merw’s low scoring output. Overall, the low risk comes from Arkadag’s dominant home record and defensive strength, while Merw’s results and goal numbers suggest limited upside.