Ararat-Armenia vs Celje

Ararat-Armenia at home has a stronger overall record than Celje away, with 2 wins and 2 losses in 4 home matches, plus 2 clean sheets. Their goal record is also slightly better, scoring 7 and conceding 5, which supports the home side having the edge in this matchup. Celje’s away sample is smaller, with 1 win and 1 draw in 2 matches, and they have not kept a clean sheet yet. They scored 6 and conceded 5 on the road, suggesting they can be competitive, but they have not shown the same defensive control as Ararat-Armenia at home. The goal indicators lean toward a relatively open game. Over 2.5 goals is favored at 54.0%, and both teams to score is also more likely at 56.8%, which fits with Ararat-Armenia’s ability to score while Celje has been able to find goals despite conceding. With home win probability at 50.8% versus 24.4% for Celje, the home outcome is the most supported, but the margin is not large. That aligns with a medium risk profile and a confidence score of 64, implying the result could swing if Celje converts their chances early.