Alumni Los Hornos vs Barrancas UMET

Barrancas UMET look more solid defensively, conceding 7 goals in 12 matches and keeping 7 clean sheets, while Alumni Los Hornos have scored 9 and conceded 13 in 11 matches. That defensive gap suggests Barrancas may limit Alumni’s scoring opportunities, especially since Alumni’s recent form includes several losses. The overall goal profile also leans low. Alumni’s goal output is modest (9 in 11), and Barrancas’ strong defensive record (7 conceded) reduces the likelihood of a high-scoring game. With both sides’ scoring rates not particularly high, the match is more consistent with fewer total goals. The probabilities reflect this lean: under 2.5 goals is supported indirectly by the relatively low chance of over 2.5 goals (37.2%). At the same time, both teams to score has a higher probability (44.7%), so there is some risk that the game becomes open enough for at least one team to find the net. Given the away team’s defensive strength and the home team’s limited scoring, an Under 2.5 Goals outcome is a reasonable expectation, but not a lock, aligning with the medium risk level and the 60 confidence score.