Division 1
Pre-match
High risk

Al Sulaibikhat vs Al Sahel

Mon, Aug 17, 05:15 PM

AI prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Confidence 47/100

Model verdict
High risk

Under 2.5 Goals

Al Sulaibikhat (WWDWD) project at 1.4 expected goals versus 1.2 for Al Sahel (DDWWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 47/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

47/100

Confidence
47/100

Strongest cover

12

70.4% probability

Risk classification

High

29.6% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

54 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

AS win35%
Draw29.6%
AS win35.4%

Goals

Over 1.572.2%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%

Both teams to score

Yes48.9%
No51.1%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Al Sulaibikhat

11/15 recent form points

WWDWD
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.95
Shots on target
Unavailable

Al Sahel

11/15 recent form points

DDWWW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.74
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 8/10 and Over 2.5 in 4/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2025 season
Odds timestamp
Aug 17, 04:00 PM UTC
Optional coverage
H2H available · odds available
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Al Sahel 1-4 Al Sulaibikhat

2026-02-21T19:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Al Sulaibikhat 0-1 Al Sahel

2025-10-27T17:50:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Al Sulaibikhat 1-1 Al Sahel

2025-05-03T19:05:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Al Sahel 1-1 Al Sulaibikhat

2025-03-28T19:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Al Sulaibikhat 3-1 Al Sahel

2025-02-03T15:55:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Al Sahel 3-1 Al Sulaibikhat

2025-01-05T17:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Al Sulaibikhat 1-1 Al Sahel

2024-05-09T18:05:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Al Sahel 1-1 Al Sulaibikhat

2024-03-14T19:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Al Sulaibikhat 0-2 Al Sahel

2023-12-31T17:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Al Sahel 4-2 Al Sulaibikhat

2023-10-25T16:35:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

MarketBookmakerOddsImpliedAIGap
Draw
1X2
BetfairBest price +6.4%3.2031.3%29.6%-1.6%
Bet3653.1032.3%29.6%-2.7%
BetVictor3.1032.3%29.6%-2.7%
10Bet2.9533.9%29.6%-4.3%
Marathonbet2.8934.6%29.6%-5.0%
William Hill2.8035.7%29.6%-6.1%
Home
1X2
BetfairBest price +7.8%2.8035.7%35.0%-0.7%
William Hill2.6038.5%35.0%-3.5%
Marathonbet2.5838.8%35.0%-3.8%
10Bet2.5539.2%35.0%-4.2%
BetVictor2.5539.2%35.0%-4.2%
Bet3652.5040.0%35.0%-5.0%
Away
1X2
MarathonbetBest price +3.7%2.6437.9%35.4%-2.5%
BetVictor2.6338.0%35.4%-2.6%
10Bet2.6038.5%35.4%-3.1%
William Hill2.6038.5%35.4%-3.1%
Bet3652.5539.2%35.4%-3.8%
Betfair2.2544.4%35.4%-9.0%
Over 2.5
Totals
MarathonbetBest price +3.4%2.2344.8%43.0%-1.8%
Bet3652.2045.5%43.0%-2.5%
BetVictor2.2045.5%43.0%-2.5%
Betfair2.1047.6%43.0%-4.6%
10Bet2.0548.8%43.0%-5.8%
Under 2.5
Totals
Bet365Best price +2.2%1.6560.6%57.0%-3.6%
Betfair1.6560.6%57.0%-3.6%
10Bet1.6062.5%57.0%-5.5%
BetVictor1.6062.5%57.0%-5.5%
Marathonbet1.5763.7%57.0%-6.7%
Yes
BTTS
William HillBest price +1.5%1.9152.4%48.9%-3.5%
BetVictor1.9052.6%48.9%-3.7%
Marathonbet1.8753.5%48.9%-4.6%
Betfair1.8554.1%48.9%-5.2%
No
BTTS
BetfairBest price +3.2%1.8554.1%51.1%-3.0%
BetVictor1.8055.6%51.1%-4.5%
Marathonbet1.7756.5%51.1%-5.4%
William Hill1.7557.1%51.1%-6.0%
Home or Draw
Double Chance
BetfairBest price +9.8%1.5763.7%0.0%-63.7%
William Hill1.4469.4%0.0%-69.4%
Bet3651.4469.4%0.0%-69.4%
BetVictor1.4071.4%0.0%-71.4%
Marathonbet1.3773.0%0.0%-73.0%
10Bet1.3673.5%0.0%-73.5%
Draw or Away
Double Chance
10BetBest price +2.6%1.4569.0%0.0%-69.0%
Bet3651.4469.4%0.0%-69.4%
BetVictor1.4469.4%0.0%-69.4%
William Hill1.4071.4%0.0%-71.4%
Marathonbet1.3971.9%0.0%-71.9%
Betfair1.3673.5%0.0%-73.5%
Home or Away
Double Chance
William HillBest price +4.2%1.3673.5%0.0%-73.5%
BetVictor1.3375.2%0.0%-75.2%
Marathonbet1.3176.3%0.0%-76.3%
Betfair1.3076.9%0.0%-76.9%
Bet3651.2878.1%0.0%-78.1%
10Bet1.2580.0%0.0%-80.0%

Model reasoning

Al Sulaibikhat at home have scored 37 goals in 19 matches and conceded 16, with 6 clean sheets. Their recent form is mixed but generally steady (WWDWD), suggesting they can avoid heavy defeats, though they are not consistently high-scoring. Al Sahel away have scored 33 goals in 19 matches and conceded only 13, with 11 clean sheets. Their recent form (DDWWW) points to strong control in matches, and the low concession rate supports the idea that games may not open up into many goals. The probabilities lean toward a tighter game: both teams to score is listed at 48.9%, and over 2.5 goals is 43.0%, which is below a coin-flip level. With those signals, under 2.5 goals fits better than over, even if the match is not strongly one-sided. Confidence is moderate-low (47) and risk is high, so there is still a meaningful chance of a higher-scoring outcome, but the combination of Al Sahel’s defensive record and clean-sheet frequency makes a low-to-moderate scoring match more plausible.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Mon, 17 Aug 2026 16:09 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

Team hubs: Al Sulaibikhat predictions · Al Sahel predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.