AI prediction
Home Win
Confidence 58/100
Al Sahel (LWDDW) project at 2.3 expected goals versus 0.8 for Shamiya (DWLLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 58/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.
Confidence
58/100
Shamiya 0-4 Al Sahel
2026-01-22T14:25:00+01:00
No BTTS
Over 2.5
Al Sahel 3-1 Shamiya
2025-10-04T19:10:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
| Market | Bookmaker | Odds | Implied | AI | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Away 1X2 | BetVictorBest price +20.0% | 13.00 | 7.7% | 7.4% |
Final score
3-0
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.
Strongest cover
1X
92.6% probability
Risk classification
High
14.2% draw weight
Value status
Pass
No qualified price edge
Market sample
6 sources
43 price observations
Full distribution
1X2
Goals
Both teams to score
Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.
Inputs behind the forecast
Al Sahel
8/15 recent form points
Shamiya
4/15 recent form points
The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.
Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/2 and Over 2.5 in 2/2.
Price interpretation
No qualified edge at this snapshot
None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.
Provenance
| -0.3% |
| Marathonbet | 12.50 | 8.0% | 7.4% | -0.6% |
| William Hill | 12.00 | 8.3% | 7.4% | -0.9% |
| Betfair | 10.50 | 9.5% | 7.4% | -2.1% |
| 10Bet | 9.00 | 11.1% | 7.4% | -3.7% |
| Bet365 | 8.00 | 12.5% | 7.4% | -5.1% |
Draw 1X2 | BetVictorBest price +12.2% | 6.50 | 15.4% | 14.2% | -1.2% |
| Marathonbet | 6.15 | 16.3% | 14.2% | -2.1% |
| Bet365 | 6.00 | 16.7% | 14.2% | -2.5% |
| 10Bet | 5.60 | 17.9% | 14.2% | -3.7% |
| Betfair | 5.50 | 18.2% | 14.2% | -4.0% |
| William Hill | 5.00 | 20.0% | 14.2% | -5.8% |
Home 1X2 | Bet365Best price +2.8% | 1.22 | 82.0% | 78.4% | -3.6% |
| 10Bet | 1.20 | 83.3% | 78.4% | -4.9% |
| William Hill | 1.20 | 83.3% | 78.4% | -4.9% |
| Betfair | 1.20 | 83.3% | 78.4% | -4.9% |
| Marathonbet | 1.15 | 87.0% | 78.4% | -8.6% |
| BetVictor | 1.15 | 87.0% | 78.4% | -8.6% |
Under 2.5 Totals | Bet365Best price +18.3% | 3.25 | 30.8% | 34.4% | +3.6% |
| Marathonbet | 2.59 | 38.6% | 34.4% | -4.2% |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 41.7% | 34.4% | -7.3% |
Over 2.5 Totals | BetfairBest price +6.6% | 1.50 | 66.7% | 65.6% | -1.1% |
| Marathonbet | 1.39 | 71.9% | 65.6% | -6.3% |
| Bet365 | 1.33 | 75.2% | 65.6% | -9.6% |
Yes BTTS | BetfairBest price +0.8% | 2.00 | 50.0% | 46.7% | -3.3% |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 50.0% | 46.7% | -3.3% |
| Marathonbet | 1.99 | 50.3% | 46.7% | -3.6% |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 51.3% | 46.7% | -4.6% |
No BTTS | William HillBest price +1.6% | 1.75 | 57.1% | 53.3% | -3.8% |
| Betfair | 1.73 | 57.8% | 53.3% | -4.5% |
| BetVictor | 1.73 | 57.8% | 53.3% | -4.5% |
| Marathonbet | 1.68 | 59.5% | 53.3% | -6.2% |
Draw or Away Double Chance | MarathonbetBest price +10.3% | 4.15 | 24.1% | 0.0% | -24.1% |
| William Hill | 4.00 | 25.0% | 0.0% | -25.0% |
| Betfair | 4.00 | 25.0% | 0.0% | -25.0% |
| 10Bet | 2.90 | 34.5% | 0.0% | -34.5% |
Home or Away Double Chance | William HillBest price +2.5% | 1.12 | 89.3% | 0.0% | -89.3% |
| Betfair | 1.11 | 90.1% | 0.0% | -90.1% |
| 10Bet | 1.09 | 91.7% | 0.0% | -91.7% |
| Marathonbet | 1.05 | 95.2% | 0.0% | -95.2% |
Home or Draw Double Chance | BetfairBest price +1.3% | 1.04 | 96.2% | 0.0% | -96.2% |
| William Hill | 1.03 | 97.1% | 0.0% | -97.1% |
| 10Bet | 1.01 | 99.0% | 0.0% | -99.0% |
Pre-kickoff call
Home Win · 74.5% → Won
Ranked probability score
0.0367 (uniform ≈ 0.222)
Recorded Mon, 10 Aug 2026 16:24 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.
Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.