Pro League
Finished
High risk

Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab

00Full time
Sat, Aug 22, 06:00 PMPrince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 55/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk

Home Win

Al Khaleej Saihat (WLLLL) project at 1.8 expected goals versus 1.3 for Al Shabab (LLLWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 55/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

55/100

Confidence
55/100

Strongest cover

12

76.1% probability

Risk classification

High

23.9% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

AKS win49.9%
Draw23.9%
AS win26.2%

Goals

Over 1.582.6%
Over 2.560.6%
Under 2.539.4%

Both teams to score

Yes62%
No38%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Al Khaleej Saihat

3/15 recent form points

WLLLL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.59
Shots on target
Unavailable

Al Shabab

3/15 recent form points

LLLWL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.29
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 5/10 and Over 2.5 in 6/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2025 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Al Khaleej Saihat 0-0 Al Shabab

2026-08-22T20:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Al Khaleej Saihat 0-0 Al Shabab

2026-01-24T14:25:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Al Shabab 1-4 Al Khaleej Saihat

2025-08-29T20:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Al Shabab 5-1 Al Khaleej Saihat

2025-02-06T16:20:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Al Khaleej Saihat 0-1 Al Shabab

2024-08-29T20:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Al Khaleej Saihat 0-0 Al Shabab

2024-03-02T15:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Al Shabab 1-3 Al Khaleej Saihat

2023-09-02T20:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Al Khaleej Saihat 2-3 Al Shabab

2023-04-11T21:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Al Shabab 4-0 Al Khaleej Saihat

2022-10-15T19:45:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Al Shabab 3-1 Al Khaleej Saihat

2018-01-25T18:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Al Khaleej Saihat at home have a slightly stronger overall record than Al Shabab, with 10 wins versus 8, but their goal profile is modest, scoring 54 and conceding 62 across the season. Their recent form is weak (WLLLL), which lowers confidence in a straightforward home win despite the home advantage. Al Shabab’s away record is less convincing, with 15 losses and fewer goals scored (44) than the home side, though they concede 57, which is also close to Al Khaleej’s 62. Their recent form is mixed (LLLWL), suggesting they can be inconsistent, but they are not clearly outmatched in defense. The market signals lean toward goals, with over 2.5 goals at 60.6% and both teams to score at 62.0%. That pattern fits a match where neither side dominates completely, which aligns with the relatively low-to-moderate confidence (55) and the high risk level. So a home win is plausible at 49.9% versus 26.2% for an away win, but the draw risk is still substantial at 23.9%, and the home team’s poor recent run makes the outcome less secure than the home-win lean suggests.

Recorded forecast

Final score

0-0

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 49.9% → Lost

Ranked probability score

0.1588 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Sat, 22 Aug 2026 08:29 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Team hubs: Al Khaleej Saihat predictions · Al Shabab predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.