Pro League
Finished
High risk

Al-Faisaly FC vs NEOM

02Full time
Fri, Aug 21, 06:00 PMAl Majma'ah Sport City

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 35/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk

BTTS Yes

Al-Faisaly FC (LLD) project at 1.4 expected goals versus 1.3 for NEOM (DDWLD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 35/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2026 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

35/100

Confidence
35/100

Strongest cover

12

74.0% probability

Risk classification

High

26.0% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

AF win35.2%
Draw26%
N win38.8%

Goals

Over 1.577.1%
Over 2.552.4%
Under 2.547.6%

Both teams to score

Yes56.9%
No43.1%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Al-Faisaly FC

1/9 recent form points

LLD
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.00
Shots on target
Unavailable

NEOM

6/15 recent form points

DDWLD
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.26
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/4 and Over 2.5 in 3/4.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Al-Faisaly FC 0-2 NEOM

2026-08-21T20:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Al-Faisaly FC 1-3 NEOM

2026-08-18T20:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

NEOM 4-1 Al-Faisaly FC

2025-05-05T18:50:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Al-Faisaly FC 3-2 NEOM

2025-01-06T13:25:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

NEOM’s overall record is slightly stronger than Al-Faisaly’s, with more wins and a better balance of results, which supports the idea that the away side can contribute to the scoring. NEOM has conceded 48 in 34 matches, while Al-Faisaly has conceded 7 in just 3 matches, suggesting Al-Faisaly have been vulnerable at least in their limited sample. The case for both teams to score is reinforced by the goal profiles. Al-Faisaly have scored 3 in 3 matches but have 0 clean sheets, so they have not kept opponents out. NEOM have 6 clean sheets across 34 matches, meaning they fail to keep a shutout in most games, which aligns with a BTTS Yes outcome. The probabilities provided also point in that direction, with both teams to score at 56.9% and over 2.5 goals at 52.4%. With confidenceScore at 35 and riskLevel listed as High, the matchup looks competitive and somewhat volatile, so BTTS Yes is plausible but not strongly supported.

Recorded forecast

Final score

0-2

Pre-kickoff call

BTTS Yes · 58.6% → Lost

Ranked probability score

0.2435 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Thu, 20 Aug 2026 09:30 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Team hubs: Al-Faisaly FC predictions · NEOM predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.