Pro League
Finished
High risk

Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Abha

40Full time
Sat, Aug 22, 06:00 PMKing Abdullah Sports City

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 47/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk

Home Win

Al-Ahli Jeddah (WWWWW) project at 2.3 expected goals versus 0.8 for Abha (LLD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 47/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

47/100

Confidence
47/100

Strongest cover

1X

92.4% probability

Risk classification

High

14.8% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

AJ win77.6%
Draw14.8%
A win7.6%

Goals

Over 1.581.4%
Over 2.558.9%
Under 2.541.1%

Both teams to score

Yes48.5%
No51.5%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Al-Ahli Jeddah

15/15 recent form points

WWWWW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
2.09
Shots on target
Unavailable

Abha

1/9 recent form points

LLD
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
0.67
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 6/10 and Over 2.5 in 7/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2025 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-0 Abha

2026-08-22T20:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Al-Ahli Jeddah 5-1 Abha

2024-05-18T20:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Abha 0-6 Al-Ahli Jeddah

2023-11-30T16:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-2 Abha

2023-10-31T19:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-1 Abha

2022-05-22T20:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Abha 2-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah

2021-11-21T12:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Abha 1-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah

2021-05-25T20:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-0 Abha

2021-01-19T17:10:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Abha 2-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah

2020-09-04T19:35:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 Abha

2020-01-13T17:05:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Al-Ahli Jeddah at home has a strong overall record with 25 wins in 34 matches, and they’ve been very solid defensively with 17 clean sheets and only 25 goals conceded. Their recent form is also perfect across the last five matches (WWWWW), which supports the idea that they can control the game. Abha’s away profile in the provided sample is weak, with 0 wins in 3 matches and 2 goals scored while conceding 7. They also have no clean sheets in that stretch, and their recent form is negative (LLD), suggesting they may struggle to keep the score close. The goal-related probabilities lean toward a home-led match: over 2.5 goals is rated at 58.9%, and both teams to score is 48.5%, which is close to a coin flip. That combination fits a scenario where Al-Ahli can score enough to win, but Abha’s ability to contribute offensively is less clear. Even with the home win probability (77.6%), the confidenceScore of 47 and the high risk level indicate some uncertainty, likely because Abha’s dataset is small (only 3 away matches shown) and the match could still produce a tighter result than the home win odds imply.

Recorded forecast

Final score

4-0

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 74.6% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.0365 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Sat, 22 Aug 2026 08:29 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Team hubs: Al-Ahli Jeddah predictions · Abha predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.