AIK Stockholm vs Orgryte IS

AIK Stockholm at home has a balanced but slightly stronger profile than Orgryte IS, with 6 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses from 14 matches. Their goals for and against are level at 18 scored and 18 conceded, and they’ve kept 3 clean sheets, which supports the idea of a controlled home performance. Orgryte IS away have struggled more, with only 2 wins and 8 losses in 14 matches, while conceding 33 goals. Their 14 scored and 33 conceded suggest they’re more likely to be limited offensively and vulnerable defensively, which aligns with the away win probability being relatively low. The market-style probabilities also point toward AIK edging it, with home win at 63.3% versus 15.7% for Orgryte. A draw remains plausible at 21.0%, so the home win case isn’t without risk, especially given AIK’s 4 draws overall. For goals, over 2.5 is at 56.7% and both teams to score at 55.2%, implying a moderate chance of an open enough game rather than a guaranteed shutout. Overall, AIK’s home advantage and Orgryte’s defensive record make a home win the lean, with medium risk due to the draw likelihood.