Adelaide Olympic vs Adelaide Raiders

01Full time
Sat, Aug 15, 07:30 AM

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 65/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk

BTTS Yes

Adelaide Olympic (WWWWL) project at 1.7 expected goals versus 1.4 for Adelaide Raiders (WWDWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 65/100 confidence with high risk.

Confidence

65/100

Confidence
65/100

Strongest cover

12

75.6% probability

Risk classification

High

24.4% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

50 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

AO win37.6%
Draw24.4%
AR win38%

Goals

Over 1.582%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%

Both teams to score

Yes62.9%
No37.1%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Adelaide Olympic

12/15 recent form points

WWWWL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.91
Shots on target
Unavailable

Adelaide Raiders

13/15 recent form points

WWDWW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
2.55
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 6/10 and Over 2.5 in 5/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
Aug 15, 06:01 AM UTC
Optional coverage
H2H available · odds available
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Adelaide Olympic 0-1 Adelaide Raiders

2026-08-15T09:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Adelaide Raiders 3-1 Adelaide Olympic

2026-05-23T07:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Adelaide Olympic 2-1 Adelaide Raiders

2024-06-08T10:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Adelaide Raiders 0-1 Adelaide Olympic

2024-03-08T10:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Adelaide Olympic 2-0 Adelaide Raiders

2021-09-04T10:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Adelaide Raiders 3-3 Adelaide Olympic

2021-06-19T07:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Adelaide Olympic 4-4 Adelaide Raiders

2020-08-29T10:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Adelaide Raiders 2-0 Adelaide Olympic

2020-07-11T07:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Adelaide Raiders 1-1 Adelaide Olympic

2019-06-08T07:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Adelaide Olympic 2-1 Adelaide Raiders

2019-04-13T11:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

MarketBookmakerOddsImpliedAIGap
Draw
1X2
Bet365Best price +3.4%3.7027.0%24.4%-2.6%
Betfair3.7027.0%24.4%-2.6%
BetVictor3.6027.8%24.4%-3.4%
Marathonbet3.5827.9%24.4%-3.5%
Unibet3.5028.6%24.4%-4.2%
William Hill3.4029.4%24.4%-5.0%
Home
1X2
BetVictorBest price +3.2%2.5040.0%37.6%-2.4%
William Hill2.4540.8%37.6%-3.2%
Bet3652.4540.8%37.6%-3.2%
Marathonbet2.4441.0%37.6%-3.4%
Betfair2.4041.7%37.6%-4.1%
Unibet2.3043.5%37.6%-5.9%
Away
1X2
UnibetBest price +3.1%2.4341.2%38.0%-3.2%
BetVictor2.4041.7%38.0%-3.7%
Marathonbet2.3642.4%38.0%-4.4%
Bet3652.3542.6%38.0%-4.6%
William Hill2.3043.5%38.0%-5.5%
Betfair2.3043.5%38.0%-5.5%
Under 2.5
Totals
UnibetBest price +10.7%2.7037.0%38.0%+1.0%
BetVictor2.3842.0%38.0%-4.0%
Bet3652.3542.6%38.0%-4.6%
Marathonbet2.3342.9%38.0%-4.9%
Over 2.5
Totals
Bet365Best price +5.5%1.5763.7%62.0%-1.7%
BetVictor1.5365.4%62.0%-3.4%
Marathonbet1.4867.6%62.0%-5.6%
Unibet1.3773.0%62.0%-11.0%
No
BTTS
BetVictorBest price +3.0%2.5539.2%37.1%-2.1%
Marathonbet2.5040.0%37.1%-2.9%
William Hill2.3842.0%37.1%-4.9%
Yes
BTTS
William HillBest price +3.0%1.5066.7%62.9%-3.8%
BetVictor1.4469.4%62.9%-6.5%
Marathonbet1.4369.9%62.9%-7.0%
Home or Draw
Double Chance
BetfairBest price +3.8%1.5365.4%0.0%-65.4%
William Hill1.5066.7%0.0%-66.7%
Bet3651.5066.7%0.0%-66.7%
BetVictor1.4768.0%0.0%-68.0%
Marathonbet1.4668.5%0.0%-68.5%
Unibet1.3872.5%0.0%-72.5%
Draw or Away
Double Chance
BetfairBest price +3.3%1.5066.7%0.0%-66.7%
Unibet1.4569.0%0.0%-69.0%
BetVictor1.4569.0%0.0%-69.0%
William Hill1.4469.4%0.0%-69.4%
Bet3651.4469.4%0.0%-69.4%
Marathonbet1.4369.9%0.0%-69.9%
Home or Away
Double Chance
William HillBest price +2.2%1.2580.0%0.0%-80.0%
BetVictor1.2580.0%0.0%-80.0%
Bet3651.2282.0%0.0%-82.0%
Betfair1.2282.0%0.0%-82.0%
Marathonbet1.2182.6%0.0%-82.6%
Unibet1.1984.0%0.0%-84.0%

Model reasoning

Adelaide Raiders have been scoring more consistently across the season, with 56 goals from 22 matches compared to Adelaide Olympic’s 42. Defensively, both sides are relatively solid, but Raiders have conceded 26 versus Olympic’s 25, keeping the matchup fairly balanced in terms of goals allowed. The BTTS Yes lean is supported by the season scoring profiles and the close defensive records. Raiders’ higher goal output suggests they are more likely to find goals even away, while Olympic’s 42 scored indicates they can also contribute offensively rather than being shut out. Over 2.5 goals is also favored at 62.0%, aligning with the idea that both teams should get on the scoresheet and that the game may not be a low-scoring stalemate. The probabilities show away win and home win are both close (38.0% vs 37.6%), which often corresponds to matches where scoring is shared rather than dominated. Confidence is moderate with a high risk level (65 confidence, high risk), so while BTTS Yes and both teams to score are the stronger signals, the tight win probabilities mean the result could still swing either way.

Recorded forecast

Final score

0-1

Pre-kickoff call

BTTS Yes · 63.0% → Lost

Ranked probability score

0.2639 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Sat, 15 Aug 2026 07:01 UTC, before kickoff at 1.50 (William Hill), by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Team hubs: Adelaide Olympic predictions · Adelaide Raiders predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.