1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden

Nürnberg at home have a fairly balanced record with 12 wins, 10 draws, and 12 losses, scoring 47 and conceding 45 across 34 matches. Their recent form is mixed but includes a lot of draws (DWDWD), which suggests they can avoid defeat, though it may limit upside in terms of winning frequency. Dynamo Dresden away have 11 wins, 8 draws, and 15 losses, with 54 goals scored and 53 conceded. Their recent form (WLWLW) looks more decisive than Nürnberg’s, but their overall away results still lean slightly toward more losses than wins. The goal indicators point toward an open game. Nürnberg and Dresden both have similar goal totals and conceded numbers, and the matchup probabilities lean to over 2.5 goals (55.9%) and both teams to score (58.6%), which supports the idea that Nürnberg can win without needing a clean-sheet type performance. With Nürnberg’s home edge and the game profile leaning toward goals, a home win is a reasonable lean, but the confidence is only moderate (53) and the risk is high given Dresden’s more alternating recent results and Nürnberg’s tendency to draw.